We’ve spent a good amount of time writing about the population multifamily seems to be focusing on the most: Millennials. And based on their behavior it is easy to roll over those trends to Gen-Z, but there is another population multifamily professionals should be looking at too: The Older Adults.

We’re talking Baby Boomers and The Silent Generation, which range from 52 (the youngest Boomers) to 93 (the oldest of The Silent Generation). From 2010 to 2014  American’s who were over the age of 65 increased by about six million people… SIX MILLION. According to Multifamily Executive it’s estimated that 14.2 million more baby boomers will become seniors by 2020. This seems like a hugely overlooked demographic, well maybe not hugely, but you hear about it less often than Millennials that’s for sure. We gathered some information on which states will be the best opportunities for multifamily professionals looking to capitalize on the growing demand of senior housing.

Before we start, we first want to point out that according to the Administration on Aging “most persons 65+ lived in metropolitan areas in 2013 (81%)”, which means you’ll only have to look to the MSA’s of any of the states we talk about below if you are interested in senior housing. They also reported “a relatively small number (1.5 million) and percentage (3.4%) of the 65+ population in 2013 lived in institutional settings such as nursing homes (1.3 million)” — meaning that active adult communities and independent living may be more of an option for many in the coming years. However, the percentage increases dramatically with age, ranging (in 2013) from 1% for persons 65-74 years to 3% for persons 75-84 years and 10% for persons 85+ — meaning that assisted living, nursing homes, and continuing care retirement communities will be necessary as the aging population grows.

Healthiest states for seniors:

  1. Vermont
  2. New Hampshire
  3. Minnesota
  4. Hawaii
  5. Utah
  6. Massachusetts
  7. Wisconsin
  8. Colorado
  9. Oregon
  10. Connecticut

Top Ten States in 2013 with most population of persons 65+:

  1. California – 4.8 million
  2. Florida – 3.6 million
  3. Texas – 3.0 million
  4. New York – 2.8 million
  5. Pennsylvania – 2.1 million
  6. Ohio – 1.7 million
  7. Illinois – 1.7 million
  8. Michigan – 1.4 million
  9. North Carolina – 1.4 million
  10. New Jersey – 1.2 million

Projected 15 year population increases in adults age 65 and older

  1. Arizona – 101% increase
  2. Nevada – 89%
  3. Florida – 88%
  4. Alaska – 70%
  5. Texas – 67%
  6. Idaho – 64%
  7. Utah – 64%
  8. New Hampshire – 62%
  9. Washington – 62%
  10. New Mexico – 52%

Top 10 states, the 65+ population increased by 30% or more between 2003 and 2013:

  1. Alaska – 61.7% 
  2. Nevada – 50.7% 
  3. Colorado – 46.8%
  4. Georgia – 44.4%
  5. Arizona – 43.2% 
  6. Idaho – 43.1% 
  7. South Carolina – 43.1%
  8. Utah – 40%
  9. Washington – 38.2%  
  10. North Carolina – 38.1%

Top 10 Senior Housing Construction States of 2015

  1. Florida 4,609 units
  2. Texas 3,017 units
  3. Ohio 2,442 units
  4. Minnesota 2,122 units
  5. Illinois 2,011 units
  6. California 1,721 units
  7. Massachusetts 1,459 units
  8. Virginia 1,432 units
  9. Colorado 1,379 units
  10. Georgia 1,348 units

Based on the stats above we can see gain a few quick insights:

  • First Alaska has a big senior population already, having 61% of their 65+ population increase by 2013, and they are expected to increase another 70%. But they were not one of the top senior housing construction states of 2015, so looks like there is room for development there with a high demand.
  • Nevada also had a large 65+ population increase of 50.7% in the decade leading to 2013 and is expected to grow an additional 89% through 2030.
  • Arizona, Idaho, and Washington seem to be in the same boat as Alaska and Nevada. Arizona had a 43.2% increase in their 65+ population up to 2013 and are on track to increase 101% in the next 15 years. Idaho is projected to grow 64% and Washington is looking at 62% growth by 2030
  • Utah is one of the healthiest states to be a senior and is projected to grow another 64% in the next 15 years. As one of the healthiest states for 65+ it could be a great opportunity for active adult and independent living communities.
  • Of the top 10 senior housing construction states, 7 are states where the 65+ population are over 1 million. Only Minnesota – 65 + pop. 756,007, Massachusetts – 65+ pop. 989,312, Colorado – 65+ pop. 647,391 are below, but interestingly enough they are all on the list of top 10 healthiest states for seniors, which may account for their increase in construction.
  • Of the top 10 senior housing construction states only Florida and Texas (both have over 3 million 65+ residents currently) are projected to increase significantly in the next 15 years by 88% and 67%, respectively. Still lots of room for growth in both states.

There are a lot more takeaways from the state information above, but one thing is undeniable — senior housing will be in big demand for many states in the next 15 years and beyond. Some states seem well prepared, but others are ripe for opportunity.

If you want to get a better view of markets in those states while seeing listing opportunities, try out Insight by REscour for 14 days absolutely FREE, no credit card required.





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